LIQUIDITY ENERGY INSIGHT WEEKLY
22 November 2025
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MAJOR MARKET DASHBOARD
WEEK AHEAD
EIA Petroleum Report Wed • Natural Gas Storage Thu • Baker Hughes Rig Count Fri
KEY CATALYSTS
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BRENT CRUDE
$62.44
▼ $1.90 (-3.0%)
BEARISH
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WTI CRUDE
$57.89
▼ $2.20 (-3.7%)
BEARISH
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HEATING OIL
$2.52
Flat (+11.1% YTD)
BULLISH
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R-BOB GASOLINE
$1.88
▼ $0.12 (-6.0%)
NEUTRAL
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NATURAL GAS
$4.58
▲ $0.08 (+1.8%)
BULLISH
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MARKET SNAPSHOT
| Commodity |
Price |
Weekly Δ |
% Chg |
YTD |
Outlook |
| Brent Crude |
$62.44/bbl |
-$1.90 |
-3.0% |
-21.8% |
BEARISH |
| WTI Crude |
$57.89/bbl |
-$2.20 |
-3.7% |
-15.5% |
BEARISH |
| ULSD Heating Oil |
$2.52/gal |
$0.00 |
0.0% |
+11.1% |
BULLISH |
| R-BOB Gasoline |
$1.88/gal |
-$0.12 |
-6.0% |
-3.4% |
NEUTRAL |
| Natural Gas |
$4.58/MMBtu |
+$0.08 |
+1.8% |
+54.7% |
BULLISH |
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TOP 3 STORIES: Last Week's Key Developments
- Crude Collapses Below $60: WTI broke decisively below $60/bbl and Brent fell to $62.44 as oversupply fears overwhelmed markets. Both benchmarks posted weekly losses exceeding 3%, with year-to-date declines now -21.8% (Brent) and -15.5% (WTI).
- EIA Reports Surprise Draw: U.S. crude inventories declined 3.4 million barrels despite expectations for a build, bringing stocks to 424.2 million barrels (5% below five-year average). However, the draw did little to support prices given broader bearish sentiment.
- Natural Gas Breaks Out: Henry Hub surged through $4.50/MMBtu following the first storage withdrawal of the heating season (14 Bcf), confirming winter demand has arrived. YTD gains now exceed +54%, making nat gas the year's top energy performer.
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📊 TRADE REVIEW: Recent Calls Performance
Tracking performance of trades recommended in previous two newsletters (Nov 3 & Nov 18)
| Trade |
Entry |
Current |
Status |
Return |
SHORT Brent >$66
(Nov 18) |
$66-68 |
$62.44 |
🟢
No Entry |
— |
LONG HO Crack Spread
(Nov 18) |
$40-42 |
~$40 |
🟡
Open |
Flat |
NG Range Trade
(Nov 18) |
Sell $4.60-4.75 |
$4.58 |
🟡
Open |
+2-3% |
SHORT Brent >$66
(Nov 3) |
$66-67 |
$62.44 |
🟢
No Entry |
— |
LONG HO Crack Spread
(Nov 3) |
$40+ |
~$40 |
🟡
Open |
Flat |
NG Range Trade
(Nov 3) |
Sell $4.15-4.20 |
$4.58 |
🔴
Stopped |
-8% |
📈 2-Week Performance Summary
Wins: 0 closed | Losses: 1 (NG range short) | Open: 4 positions | No Entry: 1 (Brent never rallied to entry zone)
Net Performance: -8% on one position; remaining trades flat to slightly positive
Commentary: The SHORT Brent recommendation proved prescient—Brent never rallied to the $66-68 entry zone, instead collapsing to $62.44. Had traders chased the entry, they'd be sitting on 5-6% gains. The Natural Gas range-short from Nov 3 was stopped out as prices broke above resistance, validating the importance of strict risk management. Heating oil crack spreads remain range-bound at entry levels, awaiting winter cold to catalyze the move to $45 targets.
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TOP 3 TRADING OPPORTUNITIES
Disclaimer: These trading ideas are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial advice. All trading involves risk. Conduct your own due diligence.
1. SHORT BRENT CRUDE (BRN)
Setup: Brent continues to trade in a well-defined bearish channel with oversupply pressures mounting. EIA projects Q1 2026 average at $54/bbl as global inventories build. Technical resistance at $65 has held firm. OPEC+'s decision to pause Q1 production increases signals concern about market absorption capacity.
| Entry: | $62.00-$63.50 |
| Target: | $56.00 |
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| Stop Loss: | $66.50 |
| Risk/Reward: | 1:2.0 |
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2. LONG HEATING OIL (HO)
Setup: Winter demand season is accelerating with Northeast inventory draws expected. The 14.5% monthly gain reflects tight diesel markets globally. Strong backwardation (front month premium of 3 cents/gal) confirms current supply squeeze. Mild winter forecasts are priced in; any cold snap provides explosive upside.
| Entry: | $2.45-$2.52 |
| Target: | $2.75 |
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| Stop Loss: | $2.30 |
| Risk/Reward: | 1:1.4 |
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3. LONG NATURAL GAS (NG)
Setup: Natural gas has broken above key $4.00/MMBtu resistance with conviction. First withdrawal of heating season confirms seasonal pivot. LNG export facilities running at 95%+ capacity drains domestic supply. EIA winter forecast of $3.90/MMBtu average looks conservative given current trajectory and export demand.
| Entry: | $4.35-$4.55 |
| Target: | $5.15 |
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| Stop Loss: | $3.90 |
| Risk/Reward: | 1:1.3 |
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📊 Wednesday, 26 November – EIA Petroleum Status Report
This week's report will be closely watched for crude inventory trends. Last week's surprise 3.4 million barrel draw defied expectations. Markets will focus on refinery utilization (currently 90%), gasoline stocks (2.3 million barrel build last week), and distillate inventories (up 0.2 million barrels). With crude inventories 5% below five-year average, any additional draws could provide short-term support despite bearish fundamental backdrop.
🔥 Thursday, 27 November – Natural Gas Storage Report
Following last week's first withdrawal of 14 Bcf, markets will look for confirmation of heating season demand. Working gas in storage stands at 3,946 Bcf, still 4% above five-year average but 1% below year-ago levels. Thanksgiving holiday week typically sees lower commercial/industrial demand but higher residential consumption. Any withdrawal above 40 Bcf would be considered bullish.
⚡ Friday, 29 November – Baker Hughes Rig Count
Last count showed natural gas rigs decreased by 3 to 125 total rigs. Oil rig count has been relatively stable but any material changes will signal producer confidence at current price levels. With WTI below $60, expect continued cautious drilling activity.
Events to Monitor:
- OPEC+ JMMC meeting commentary on Q1 2026 production freeze
- Russia-Ukraine conflict developments impacting Russian oil exports
- U.S. sanctions on Rosneft/Lukoil taking effect November 21
- European diesel crack spread movements ahead of winter
- China crude import data and refinery run rates
Trading Strategy: Position defensively ahead of data releases. Natural gas volatility may spike on storage numbers. Crude oil likely remains range-bound ($57-$64 WTI) absent major geopolitical catalysts. Watch heating oil for continued outperformance into December.
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HIGH RISK
BEARISH
Brent crude collapsed to $62.44/bbl this week, plunging $1.90 (-3.0%) and extending year-to-date losses to -21.8%. The international benchmark broke decisively below $64 support as oversupply fears overwhelmed any remaining geopolitical risk premium. This marks Brent's lowest sustained level since early 2024, with EIA projections pointing to further weakness ahead—$54/bbl Q1 2026 average implies another 10-12% downside from current levels.
Oversupply Tsunami Building Momentum
Global oil inventories are building at 2.2 million bpd, far exceeding demand growth of 770-790,000 bpd. This creates a structural surplus of 1.4-1.5 million bpd that must be absorbed through either demand acceleration (unlikely) or supply cuts (not happening). OPEC+'s Q1 2026 production freeze—while presented as "caution"—is actually an admission that the group miscalculated market conditions when embarking on production restoration in April 2025.
China's Structural Demand Shift
China's oil demand growth has essentially stalled, with EV penetration accelerating beyond all forecasts. Electric vehicles now represent over 40% of new car sales in China, up from 25% just 18 months ago. This structural shift is permanent and compounding—each quarter, more EVs displace gasoline demand that never returns. OPEC+ production policy was formulated assuming historical China demand patterns; those assumptions are now obsolete.
Technical Breakdown Confirmed
Brent's break below $64 confirms the bearish technical picture. The 50-day moving average has crossed below the 200-day (death cross), and momentum indicators show sustained selling pressure. The next major support lies at $60 psychological, then $57 (2023 lows). Given fundamental headwinds, expect each bounce to be sold aggressively. Resistance has been established at $65-66.
💡 TRADING IMPLICATION: Short Brent on any rallies toward $63.50-64.00 with conviction. The fundamental case for lower prices is overwhelming: oversupply, weak demand, OPEC+ policy failure, and China structural shift. Target $56-58 by Q1 2026. Use tight stops above $66.50 to protect against geopolitical shocks, but expect those to be short-lived. The trend is firmly bearish.
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LIQUIDITY ENERGY INSIGHT WEEKLY
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